Ethno-Territorial Conflicts in the Post-Soviet South Caucasus: Dynamic Scenarios and Settlement Opportunities

This article examines the specialties of the process of settlement of the Georgian-Abkhaz, Georgian-South Ossetian, Armenian-Azerbaijani ethno-territorial conflicts in the post-Soviet South Caucasus. It draws the conclusion that the negotiation process turned out to be futile in all cases due to the fundamental inconsistency between two principles of modern international law, that was supported by the parties (the right to territorial integrity and the right of people to self-determination). The inability of the parties to the conflict to come to an accommodation drastically increased the recurrence rate of the solutions by force, where Russia played a central role in the prevention measures. The recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008 allowed them to remove their security issues. Another consequence of Russia's transformation into a guarantor country of these polities was the rapid growth of anti-Russian sentiments in Georgian society. The neutrality maintained by Russia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has become one of the central conditions for Azerbaijan's return to a military solution to the conflict in the autumn of 2020.
But in the post-Soviet South Caucasus conditions, none of the possible options can lead to a final solution. Even in the case of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, when the existing status quo is guaranteed by the power of Russia, the conflicts of these polities with Georgia are still frozen, retaining the possibility of an escalation in case of any serious destabilization of the guarantor country.